Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.315732 1.535822 1.780954 2.074184 2.415437 2.800105 3.266753
2024-12-15 0.961070 1.253347 1.615919 2.098664 2.724776 3.509846 4.570075
2024-12-22 0.735908 1.038493 1.443740 2.026003 2.841602 3.944500 5.551730
2024-12-29 0.651240 0.979753 1.447911 2.163402 3.230078 4.763389 7.139787
2025-01-05 0.537702 0.855102 1.332428 2.102024 3.312987 5.148217 8.148239
2025-01-12 0.448860 0.750155 1.225594 2.029718 3.357532 5.467145 9.083810
2025-01-19 0.380838 0.666001 1.136181 1.966915 3.400372 5.778004 10.034944
2025-01-26 0.343222 0.625888 1.111229 2.004029 3.608404 6.377271 11.537092
2025-02-02 0.326354 0.618826 1.140335 2.136402 3.995331 7.324276 13.763324
2025-02-09 0.301810 0.593802 1.133372 2.201181 4.266447 8.096167 15.769035
2025-02-16 0.275909 0.562222 1.109538 2.229836 4.471352 8.767798 17.667993
2025-02-23 0.250040 0.526842 1.073356 2.228571 4.615857 9.338291 19.437057
2025-03-02 0.225818 0.492174 1.035522 2.221987 4.755211 9.928456 21.352337
2025-03-09 0.206887 0.466080 1.011972 2.242486 4.954929 10.669173 23.689948
2025-03-16 0.181854 0.423016 0.946871 2.164586 4.932936 10.943004 25.059702
2025-03-23 0.177624 0.425971 0.981534 2.311323 5.424553 12.379488 29.193864
2025-03-30 0.158168 0.390809 0.926435 2.245767 5.424538 12.727355 30.888205
2025-04-06 0.140336 0.356941 0.869766 2.168538 5.386172 12.981457 32.393550
2025-04-13 0.125271 0.327712 0.820170 2.101460 5.362746 13.266210 34.009153
2025-04-20 0.117911 0.316945 0.813934 2.141101 5.608346 14.226644 37.431731
2025-04-27 0.116437 0.321298 0.845908 2.282484 6.131175 15.934499 42.990002
2025-05-04 0.111295 0.315107 0.850106 2.351671 6.474895 17.232260 47.647599
2025-05-11 0.104763 0.304170 0.840435 2.382276 6.719446 18.303307 51.839365